Monday, March 3, 2008

Orange or Red Revolution in Iran?

Orange Revolution in Iran

The Islamic Republic regime of Iran is an outdated regime. It was formed under chaotic forms under its revolutionary period in 1979. Today this regime is going through its last stages of decay. The solutions available for the regime is varied but each of these solutions has its own engine and might transform the regime into entirely different political space in Iran. Compared to the three main engines of revolution, Islam itself appears as seconday force.

1, First engine of Revolution is Pan Turkism and Tribalism under the leadership of President Ahmadinejad. It is based on Azeri Turk tribalism and will lead to a model similar to Idi Amin's regime in Uganda. This faction is allied with US and specially with American Liberal Jews. In Iraq, this faction is closely allied with Mughtada Al Sadr. This faction represents the engine of Pan Turkism. Its objective is the policy of Turkification of Iran.

2. Secular Persian Monarchy. This is similar to Shah's regime but with certain modifications. This is the engine of westernization. It is based on secular middle and upper classes. University graduates in Iran are attracted to this model. University students in Iran are the biggest political headache for the regime in Tehran.

3. Socialist Revolution based on an alliance of secular left forces with Islamic elements. This faction of regime is called the Islamic faction and is under the leadership of Ayattolah Khamnei. This faction is allied mostly with Europeans and Russians. This faction has more pro-persian policies and includes Persians and other natives of Iran. In Iraq, this faction is allied with President Talabani and Ayattollah Sistani. This faction represents the "Engine of Socialist Revolution" even though it is composed of both Islamic and Socialist elements.

Orange Revolution was supposed to be an alliance of Pan Turks and Monarchy forces under the leadership of Bush Administration. This option would have led to an "Idi Amin tribal regime in Uganda" model with a combination of "Pan TurkTribalism" with "Criminal-Maffia" forces under the leadership of President Ahmadinejad..

http://adolphahmadi.blogspot.com/

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